Zuma: 0 - NPA: 1

The NPA finally scored a legal victory over Jacob Zuma and his lawyers today. IOL reports that Judge Phillip Levensohn granted the National Prosecuting Authority's request for a letter requesting Mauritian authorities to hand over documentation pertaining to alleged meetings between ANC deputy president Jacob Zuma, convicted businessman Schabir Shaik and French arms manufacturer Thint.

On the face of it this does not seem like a significant victory for the NPA in building a solid case against Mr Zuma because they already have a copy of the diary in dispute which was accepted as evidence in the Shaik trial. But maybe there are other documents among the one's requested that we have not been told of and that will help the state.

In any case, it seems clear that Mr Zuma will be recharged by the NPA later this year and that he will therefore be a defendant in a criminal trial at the time of the ANC conference in Polokwane in December.

A few months ago everyone was saying that President Mbeki was down and out and Zuma was on the up. Now it is clear that Mbeki did not become President of the ANC because he was ever outmanoeuvred in backroom deals and shenanigans. I give him a 50% chance of being re-elected ANC President in December - but I do hope with all my heart this does not happen because it will be bad for the ANC and bad for the country.